1 Million Videos Means Nothing

It’s fun to watch Apple turn everything into an event, no matter how uneventful the event is. The latest news is their sales of 1 million videos in less than 20 days. TinyScreenfuls appears ready to call this a sign of success. I often agree with Josh; in this I disagree. How many of those downloads were people curious about the service? How many of those downloads were one-off purchases from one individual? How many of the one million downloads were repeat customers? How many people downloaded one show to try out the service and then subscribed to an entire season of Lost or Desperate Housewives? Lots of people will try something new once. Apple’s video service is the new restaurant in town with all the buzz. If they hit 10 million downloads in the first 90 days (including future downloads from a full season purchase) then Apple has another hit. My prediction is we won’t see 3 million downloads by the end of 60 days, which would mean Apple is maintaining the current pace. If I’m wrong, I’ll buy an iPod Video.